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India Poised To Lead Global Economic Growth Despite Widespread Trade Slowdown

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  • India continues to lead global ranking for the DHL Global Trade Barometer even as air and ocean freight volumes decline
  • Basic Raw Materials, High Technology and Machinery Parts are expected to sustain the greatest positive contributions to India’s near-term growth

MUMBAI, INDIA – Media OutReach – December 3, 2018 – India’s pace of growth continues to lead the world’s largest economies with its trade index of 75 points on the DHL Global Trade Barometer released by DHL, the world’s leading logistics company, far exceeding its Asian and European counterparts.

The DHL Global Trade Barometer, an early indicator of global trade developments calculated using Artificial Intelligence and Big Data, revealed that India’s trade and economic growth prospects look the most positive out of the world’s largest seven economies for the three-month forecast period ending in January. This is despite the country’s overall index declining by eight points from the previous quarter, amidst a slowing global trade momentum. India retained pole position on the Barometer throughout 2018, reaching its peak in February with a score of 86.

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“We are heading into 2019 with the most positivity in Basic Raw Materials, High Technology and Machinery Parts, with slight index increases in both segments,” said George Lawson, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding India. “That alludes to India’s continual rise in standards of living, evolving lifestyles and rural demand that have contributed to annual consumption growth of close to 10% in 2018.[1]

“Earlier this year, India also overtook Germany to become the fourth largest automobile market in the world, with domestic sales growing by 9.5%,[2] even as it continues to be a vehicle manufacturing hub for both foreign exports and domestic use.[3] The Barometer’s results reflect that resilience with a slight increase for Land Vehicles and Motor Parts to an index of 70.”

The Barometer’s results also suggest that global trade will continue to grow over the next three months and that the development of the previous quarters will continue. The pace of growth, however, will particularly decelerate for Asia except for China.

“The DHL Global Trade Barometer clearly shows that the state of global trade remains solid. Both air and ocean trade continue to grow around the world. However, given the smoldering trade conflicts, especially between the United States and China, and economists’ expectations that the global economy could cool down, it is not entirely surprising that trade momentum has weakened slightly,” said Tim Scharwath, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight.

Indices for all seven countries that constitute the GTB index — including China, Germany, India, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States — are above 50 points. In the Global Trade Barometer methodology, an index value above 50 indicates positive growth, while values below 50 indicate contraction.

Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global Trade Barometer is an innovative and unique early indicator for the current state and future development of global trade. It is based on large amounts of logistics data that are evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence. The indicator has been developed in cooperation between DHL, the world’s leading logistics company, and IT service provider Accenture. It is published four times a year. The next release date is scheduled for March 27, 2019.

DHL — The logistics company for the world
DHL is the leading global brand in the logistics industry. Our DHL family of divisions offer an unrivalled portfolio of logistics services ranging from national and international parcel delivery, e-commerce shipping and fulfillment solutions, international express, road, air and ocean transport to industrial supply chain management. With about 360,000 employees in more than 220 countries and territories worldwide, DHL connects people and businesses securely and reliably, enabling global trade flows. With specialized solutions for growth markets and industries including technology, life sciences and healthcare, energy, automotive and retail, a proven commitment to corporate responsibility and an unrivalled presence in developing markets, DHL is decisively positioned as “The logistics company for the world”.

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